U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE

IEA Predicts U.S. Will Lead Global Oil Supply Growth

By Stephen Eule

The good news on energy just keeps on coming.

About a month ago we told you about the latest forecast from the Energy Information Administration showing U.S. crude oil production reaching new heights in the coming years.

Earlier this week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its Oil 2019 report, a five-year forecast of oil markets out to 2024. The Agency summarizes the key finding of the report this way:You read that right: IEA expects the United States to export more oil than Russia and almost as much as Saudi Arabia by 2024.

IEA also notes that “The ability of the US to turn itself into a major exporter in less than a decade is unprecedented.” You can say that again.

This is stunning news. Ten years ago no one would ever have predicted such a thing or even thought it possible. But U.S. producers continue to confound the experts and change the dynamics of the global oil market. In so doing they have all but erased a once large U.S. geopolitical disadvantage while at the same time benefiting U.S. consumers by keeping downward pressure on oil prices.

None of this would have happened had the U.S. ban on crude oil exports, put in place in reaction to the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973, remained in place. We here at the Global Energy Institute were among the first to call for ending the ban in 2015 and led efforts that resulted in its repeal by Congress, which was signed into law by President Obama in 2016.

The United States has become an exporting powerhouse, not just in crude oil but in refined products, natural gas, and coal, too. U.S. exports are helping to diversify energy supplies to world markets and improve energy security everywhere. What a difference an decade makes.

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