WASHINGTON, D.C. — The 10th anniversary edition of the Index of U.S. Energy Security Risk reveals some of the best results yet regarding the state of America’s energy security.
A landmark annual report by the Global Energy Institute of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Index employs 37 energy security metrics measuring geopolitical, economic, reliability, and environmental risks. The Index covers the period 1970-2040 and incorporates the latest historical data and forecast models. A lower Index score indicates a lower level of risk. For context, the highest risk year was 2011 at 101.4. In 2018—the most recent year for which data is available—the risk score dropped to 75.8, just above the best-ever score of 75 in 1992.
“Our Index has documented the incredible story of how the shale energy revolution has ensured America’s energy security,” said Marty Durbin, President of the U.S. Chamber’s Global Energy Institute. “Our nation’s diverse energy sources, including coal, renewables and nuclear, add to that energy security and make the U.S. the largest energy producer in the world. This benefits our economy, our global security, and the environment, as America’s energy production is held to the world’s highest environmental standards.”
This year’s Index takes a closer look at critical earth elements, which have seen a rapid increase in demand due to technologies like electric vehicles, fluorescent lighting, photovoltaic cells and wind turbines, all of which use these materials. Reserves of critical earth elements are highly concentrated geographically, which could place access at risk in the future, especially during trade disputes or foreign market distortions. While not specifically included in this year’s Index ratings, the Global Energy Institute is now tracking metrics related to cobalt, graphite, lithium and rare earths, and is evaluating potential updates to the Index formula to account for these materials and their impact to our overall energy security risk in the future.
For this year’s edition, most major metrics held relatively steady, with significant improvements in crude oil price volatility, security of petroleum imports (since imports have decreased), and oil and natural gas import expenditures.
Looking forward to 2040, improvements are expected in efficiency related metrics, reflecting advances made across the economy, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, which saw an uptick in 2018, but is expected to decline by as much as 40 percent by 2040 due to investment in clean energy technologies.
The Index and its companion, the International Energy Security Risk Index, are available on our website at www.globalenergyinstitute.org/energy-security-risk-index.