With the conclusion of the first week of the UN climate change talks in Paris, known as COP-21, it’s fair to say the 196 Parties made one step forward, and one step back towards a new accord. Here’s the state of play as the second week gets underway.
The meeting started on something of a high note with national leaders appearing at the opening ceremonies of the meeting to inspire the troops. At the Copenhagen climate change talks in 2009—widely viewed, whether fairly or not, as a failed meeting—the leaders came in at the end and got caught up in the negotiations, never a good place for a leader to be in. Having learned a valuable lesson, the French brought in the heads of state at the start.
After a good start and stirring words, the negotiations did what they do best—got bogged down in the same contentious issues that have plagued the talks for well more than a decade. Many observers here believe that the division between the developed and developing countries have widened. The so-called like-minded bloc of emerging economies, which includes China, India, and Saudi Arabia, was particularly effective in pushing for the interests of developing countries.
Among the most contentious issues are the usual suspects: finance (or in the parlance of the agreement, “means of implementation”) and how mitigation pledges will be reviewed (e.g., every five years?) and how the level of ambition can be raised. Provisions that weaken intellectual property rights also have (not unexpectedly) popped up in the text—something the business community will continue to push back on.
Nevertheless, by Saturday negotiators were able to hand over, accompanied by a chorus of cheers, to the ministers, who arrived on Monday, a draft agreement text of some 48 pages (compared to the 55 pages the negotiators started with).
This week, we can expect to see the negotiators try to resolve issues: (1) finance; (2) differentiation (i.e., how the responsibilities among developed and developing countries will be divided going forward); (3) mitigation, including long-term goal; and (4) raising the level on pre-2020 pledges. The hope is ministers can get a text to the lawyers by Thursday evening so they can analyze and translate the text, something that’s needed if the Paris agreement is to have the “legal force” many countries are demanding.
If the first week in any indication, the second week should go into overtime before a deal is sealed.